Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
