Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
